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Vol. 2, Issue 8

August 2001

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Additional Letters to the Editor

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Snowbowl misrepresented coalition’s views

  Editor’s note: The following letter was sent to J. R. Murray, general manager of the Arizona Snowbowl on July 11, as well as to Flagstaff Tea Party and other local media.

We have become aware that the Flagstaff Dark Skies Coalition was inaccurately represented in your presentation at the Snowbowl Lodge on … July 10 (concerning) your proposed snow play area at U.S. 180 and Snowbowl Road. Appearing beneath a diagram showing planned lighting use for the site was a statement indicating that the proposed lighting “meets the objectives ... of the Flagstaff Dark Skies Coalition.”

This is not true.  In fact, the FDSC has not been officially contacted, and though the observatory representative you spoke with regarding lighting is also a member of FDSC, he did not evaluate the proposal from the perspective of FDSC, and did not represent to you any FDSC position regarding your proposal.

The objectives of FDSC are “to celebrate, promote, and protect the Dark Skies of Flagstaff and Northern Arizona.”  Our position concerning this project is that 1) the lighting, as proposed, is reasonable from the perspective of recommended lighting practices and the lighting code, but 2) it is a substantial amount of light in a naturally dark rural environment, over a perpetually snowy surface that will reflect a large portion of the light into the night sky, and therefore it will have substantial negative impact on the quality of the dark sky resource in Fort Valley. 

Our impression from the meeting is that many of the residents of Fort Valley, like many throughout our community, highly value their views of a dark, star-filled sky.  We support their concern, and agree that the proposed lighting would have a detrimental affect on their night skies.

In future we would appreciate that you not presume to represent our position without consulting with us and receiving our permission.

 

John Grahame,

for the Flagstaff Dark Skies Coalition

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A Phoenician’s take on Flagstaff

 While visiting Flagstaff this summer, I was pleased to discover your newspaper. I was able to find similar fare in my hometown of Ann Arbor, Michigan, but it is hard to find such in my current home of Phoenix. I enjoy a wide variety of reading materials, from the likes of Flagstaff Tea Party to Barrons.

I wanted to comment on the articles by Norm Wallen and Lisa Rayner, which are somewhat related. First,  Wallen commented that a property owner would classify the failure to upzone property from 70 homes developable to 1,000 homes as a taking. This is an exaggeration which damages the credibility of his point. I have never heard such a claim and surely no court would find as such. However, a government action that would effectively downzone a property from 1,000 homes to 70 would be a taking. The precedent-setting Supreme Court case concerned ocean-front home lots in the Carolinas. The Supreme Court found, by an 8-1 vote, that the local authority could not initiate a ban on ocean front construction without compensating the owners of the affected lots. An 8-1 vote is not a close call. No property owner is entitled to upzone property. That is why a developer will take an option to buy, subject to upzoning, realizing that it is not a certainty. If it was a given, or a right, why not just buy the land? Boulder, Colo. has developed a greenbelt surrounding the city by refusing to upzone agriculturally zoned land. This policy has withstood court challenge.

With respect to growth vs. no growth or slow growth, I agree with the philosophy of zero population growth and many of the points made in Rayner's article. However, I do not think that Flagstaff has a population problem, while Calcutta does. Zero Population Growth will be achieved as the developing world becomes more educated and affluent. This is an ongoing process, and world birthrates are slowly in decline. In fact, the US and western Europe would have declining populations were it not for immigration and ever lengthening lifetimes.

The Flagstaff area is a very desirable community and will inevitably continue to grow. If the city were to choke off development, surrounding areas will develop in a sprawl manner, completely outside of Flagstaff's control. Inside the city limits, housing would become more and more expensive. The community that you seek to maintain would slowly cease to exist. Affordable housing would eventually consist of mobile homes within driving distance of town. It would be much better to shape the manner of development through design review procedures and objective development criteria. For example, perhaps a developer can buy density for a downtown mid-rise, with the proceeds used to fund the purchase (rather than the taking) of open space around the city. With center-city density, critical mass is achieved to create a human-friendly environment, where residents can walk to work, shopping and entertainment. The continuing demand for housing is met with supply, preventing the city from being an exclusive enclave for affluent environmentalists.

 I hope that you will find these ideas constructive and thought provoking to your readership.

Happy Birthday!

Rich Baxter

Phoenix

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Corporations backed the Nazis

This is regarding Dr. Lawrence Wilson’s letter to the editor in the July issue of Flagstaff Tea Party. Wilson wrote, “The free enterprise system is pretty wonderful, functioning much better than the socialist systems that Nazi Germany, Communist Russia and a number of nations are still known for.”

Two corrections:

1.       After the “Night of the Long Knives” the controlling element in the German Nazi party had moved away from National “socialism” to control by Germany’s largest corporations, such as I.G. Farben (Hitler’s major backer), Krupp, Flick, Faber, Thysen & Mengele, most of whom were recently exposed as still having illegal financial control of the Conservative Kohl government.

2.       Socialism and capitalism have worked successfully and in harmony in North European countries such as the Netherlands, one of the world’s wealthiest, most modern countries, where care for one’s fellow man still co-exists with highly successful (originally Dutch, now multinational) corporations, such as Phillips, KLM, Uni-Lever, A-Hold, Shell Oil, etc.). Did you know that the Netherlands, together with the Japanese and the U.K., own/control more real estate in the U.S.A. than any other foreign countries?

 

Tony van Renterghem

Flagstaff

 

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There are no limits

In her July article, Lisa Rayner made reference to the Club of Rome and the findings of their computer model which predicted the eventual collapse of our society in the 1972 book, 7he Limits to Growth.

We should not be so naive as to put our faith in a computer model made in 1970 — 30 years later and we still don't have any computer models sophisticated enough to tell us with any certainty what next month's stock prices are going to do, much less prognosticate something as complicated as the long-term economic fate of human society. The computer model used by the Club of Rome was exceedingly simplistic, as even the authors of Limits to Growth admitted at the time;

“We use the model (World3) to simulate the world system as it might evolve if there were no structural changes, no extraordinary efforts to see ahead, to improve signals, or to solve problems before they become critical. The results of those simulations is not only overshoot, but collapse. Fortunately there is evidence that the real human world is more competent than the simplified model world of (World3)." (Limits, p. 8)

Indeed. Their computer model predicted that metals such as gold, mercury, tin, zinc, copper and lead would all become increasingly scarce, and more expensive towards the end of the 20th century. In fact, the real prices of all of these resources have dropped, due to increased abundance. The programmers of the World3 model seem to have used algorithms designed to study animal populations, but unlike animals, humans do not just consume resources, they are capable of producing them as well.

As for population growth — the cornerstone of the Club of Rome's Malthusian pessimism — they were spectacularly wrong as well. At the time the book was written, the world population was estimated at 3.6 billion. Their computer model predicted a world population of 7 billion by 2000 — in fact, most experts believe we have only just passed the 6 billion mark. In only 30 years, they were off by one billion — one sixth of the world's population!

As any computer scientist will tell you, "garbage in, garbage out." The Club of Rome's computer model was fatally flawed because many of its key assumptions had no bearing on the real world. Their neo­Malthusian view of humanity assumed that we would grow like yeast — the more abundant the food supply, the higher the rate of population growth. This has been proven to be dead wrong. In fact, the areas of the globe with the highest per capita food production show the least population growth — exactly the opposite of their prediction.

Population growth in the most advanced industrialised nations (the United States included) has been slowing, and in some cases Oike Germany) actually going into reverse. As developing societies mature and become more Westernized, this trend is expected to continue; many population experts now believe that the world population will stabilize toward the middle of this century at about 9 billion.

Computer models of complex systems like the Earth's climate or the economic fate of human civilization cannot possibly be accurate until we understand those systems completely. We should all be very skeptical of those who attempt to use computer models of doomsday scenarios to bully us into making policy decisions. More often than not, such computer models are based more on ideology than science. Time and time again, the predictions of the doomsayers (backed of course by the latest "scientific" data) come to naught. Remember the global cooling scares of the 1970's? Until our knowledge of the world is more complete, computer models predicting our planet's future will be unreliable if not downright misleading - as it stands now, you're probably better off with "Mistress Cleo. "

But having said that, the authors of The Limits to Growth did make one prediction that has stood the test of time remarkably well:

"We shall emphasize ... that none of these computer outputs is a prediction. We would not expect the real world to behave like the world model in any of the graphs we have shown, especially in the collapse modes." (Limits, p. 142)

 

Michael Lacy

Flagstaff

 

Tea Party Publisher Lisa Rayner replies:

 

Both the Limits to Growth and Beyond the Limits, involved dozens of computer simulations with wide ranges of inputs like the rate of population growth, consumption levels, pollution levels and technological efficiency. The results were quite varied. The authors did not endorse any of the simulations as the “right” one.

The only simulations that avoided collapse were ones in which both population and consumption were lowered, and technology was made much more efficient. Doing only one or two of those strategies was shown to slow down the rate of collapse (with no specific years implied), but not avoid it completely.

All resources produced by humans ultimately come from natural resources. We do not create resources out of thin air.

Global warming research suggests that if the Earth warms pasts a certain unknown point, the Gulf Stream could stop circulating warm equatorial water to the north Atlantic and northern Europe, causing Europe to rapidly cool down. Geologic evidence indicates that the Gulf Stream has shut down prior to every ice age since it first appeared.

 

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Tea Party disappoints

 

Not only did I gladly anticipate the startup of the Flagstaff Tea Party, but have been a monthly reader since you began publishing. For years now, I have held a position as a conscientious objector to media — I don't watch television, I turn the radio off for news and commercials, and I rarely to almost never read daily papers (sometimes a headline in the Daily Sun or the NY Times will catch my attention), for the simple reason that I don't want to be fed the BS.

 

The Tea Party is about to get dumped into my file of don't reads for the following reasons:

1.       The necessity that you all seem to have about slamming the other guys in town — both the Daily Sun and the Flag Live! Mountain. Living bunch. Didn't you ever hear about how pathetic it is to cut another down to make yourselves look bigger? Any intelligent person wishing to place advertising could do their own compare and contrast for pricing. Also, how many minors do you have delivering your paper and/or are on your payroll? I don't appreciate the bad mouthing, and find it very offensive and immature.

2.       My lifestyle is one that keeps me walking lightly, respectfully, worshipfully and responsible to our Earth. However in that, I live well below the poverty level, while usually working two or three different gigs. Guess what? I have to think about how I can get the most for my meager dollars, in the no spare time that I have, and sometimes that means shopping at Wal-Mart, or Barnes & Noble where I can get lower prices during times that are convenient for me (often not the times that our locally owned businesses are open). The ongoing bashing that you all publish for any others than those following your party lines reminds me of the Christian right, and is as much of a turnoff. Which leads me to #3

3.       The Tea Party has become utterly predictable and boring in promoting its party line. I do like the articles you publish written by community members — often folks I know. This is probably the first time in my life I've ever written a letter like this, and I considered sending it anonymously, as I am a community player. However, I'm mad and offended, and ask that you consider whether your judgements and opinions are really good journalism.

 

If you choose to print this (which I consider highly unlikely), please do not use my name.

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Stop laying blame, accentuate the positive

 

Dear Lisa and Dan and all of the wonderful FAN activists who are working so hard to preserve our small town qualities here in Flagstaff:

I am following the long-urged advice of Mary Sojourner to break silence. I have held back for way too long now, mostly, I think, in fear of being misunderstood or criticized — silly reasons, I know, but there, nonetheless. I honor your efforts, through Flagstaff Tea Party to create alternative press in northern Arizona. You have courage and determination that I have been sitting on. But it seems to me that you are, please excuse the cliche, "preaching to the choir." Those of us who read and agree are not the ones needing to be informed, and the ones who are in need of expanded vistas may not be continuing readers. My problem with FTP is that you have an obvious agenda — and an "us and them" approach to your vision. I believe it is time to make a leap here — a giant leap. If we are, indeed, "One Planet, One People" then I would encourage us all to go beyond our need to be right, our need to be judge and jury of others, and our need to underline our seeming separation from each other. I would like to see us expand our vision of cooperation and conscious awareness in these dark times that I believe are taking us into a potentially shiny future. I know I am at risk of being labeled a "Pollyanna" here, but hey, I could carry worse labels.

I have been a Flagstaff resident (minus perhaps 10 scattered years away) since 1962 — a transplant, like many others now, from southern California. When I arrived, the population was in the 20,000s. We had 3 downtown, locally owned markets — Babbitt’s Thriftway, where Wells Fargo is now, Southside Market, now Dragon's Plunder, and Foodtown, now Beaver Brew. The 70s saw the dwindling of local businesses as Switzer's Hardware closed its doors and Moore's Drugs became McGaughs. Businesses came and went, including my own Enchanted Owl, living in what is now Alley Cats. Times they truly are a changin' though as the corporate world slides its tentacles into our town-wanting-to-become-a-city. And I am wondering — is there a heart beating anywhere in these big mega-corporations? They are made up of individuals aren't they? How do we reach their hearts and minds? Or do we simply teach by example, wake up ourselves and walk our own talk? I have come to recognize that the seeds of the 7 generations lie within us now, and that we nurture them by the way we live our own lives. Are we opening our own hearts to each other? Listening to each other? Being creative in our (approach) to problems? Opening to an ever-broadening vision of how our "reality" can be?

I have for many years felt that our media, particularly TV news and newspapers, has promoted a narrow-focused, fear-slanted agenda. I have often wondered what might happen in the minds of the masses if they were to see and hear about those who are being creative, cooperating with each other, expressing acts of kindness and generosity, and overcoming great obstacles in their lives. How might we all perceive this world we live in if we were being inspired by the lives of actively conscious yet ordinary folks who love their children, listen to the wisdom of the old ones and offer kindnesses in their daily lives? I would like to hear more about the positive stuff going on in my community — about the people who really are "living simply, that others may simply live." (I love bumper stickers!) Articles like the one from William Edelen (July 2001) are wonderful! Revealing much without laying blame.

I thank you, again, for your tremendous efforts to offer us an alternative to the Daily Sun. Your work is needed and appreciated. Perhaps I can be of service to you, in some way, to see my own vision of alternative journalism become even more of a reality here in this community I have called "home" for some 35 years.

Desdra Dawning

Flagstaff

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Coffee, Big Boxes and small town dilemmas

I think Starbucks is overrated and will continue to enjoy Late for the Train and Macy's and Jitters when I treat myself to special coffees. I have no objection to Starbucks opening — we have every ugly fast food joint and chain motel imaginable. There is not too much we can do that will hurt the looks of the town unless we build massive buildings, like Wal-Marts and Home Depots. However, I have no desire to support chains when I can get as good or better quality at a local spot. I don't even mind spending a little bit more for the value of having local service.

It seems to me the arguments about business coming into town are not based on the right ideas. Walmart does a good business on South Milton, so it obviously fills a need. Who else sells what they sell (e.g. inexpensive clothing for kids and adults alike, kitchen appliances, garden supplies etc.)? Only other chains, like K-mart and Target. If a second Wal-Mart opens, they will do a good business too — but the South Milton Wal-Mart store will close and there will stand a huge, ugly, empty monstrosity. Anybody who does not believe this will happen is only kidding themselves. Whether K-mart and Target can both stay in business I cannot venture to guess.

We do not currently keep our money in town because most of our business is not local. This is true everywhere. Part of the problem is that local shops have a very high turnover rate because it is very hard to make a living as a small business owner and many people are not terribly business savvy when they start out. Part of the problem is that a local shop cannot possibly compete with the huge stores for many reasons, including the price of goods discounts large stores get for buying in bulk and the social welfare they get from cities that a small business could never hope for.

Part of the problem is that people just think there is nothing in Flagstaff. And, as with all myths, there is a morsel of truth in that. People do not go to Phoenix to shop at Wal-Mart. They go to Phoenix to buy business clothes, or men's shoes, or kitchen gear, or any of the dozens of other things that either are not for sale in this town or, if they are, they are well-kept secrets, or they are just too expensive.

A friend of mine recently bought a new car in Phoenix — not out of choice, but because it would cost some thousands of dollars more to buy the same vehicle here. Some business owners are just plain greedy and will gouge the customer. They do not deserve our business, whether they are local or not. We just went to Phoenix to buy simple supports for a large stained glass window because we could not find anything here that suits our needs. It is hard to believe, but if somebody can make these in Flagstaff, we can't find you! Shopping for some of the best goods, as rated in Consumer Reports, is an exercise in futility in this town. We are forced to go elsewhere for many goods if we want to buy quality.

I think we should do the following: The city should adopt a very strong building code that restricts new building based on size. Huge ugly stores are horrible to work in, they are horrible to shop in, and they are blights on the landscape. Then, anybody who wants and can open up shop, should be allowed to. We should vote and we will vote with our purses. As concerned citizens, it is up to us to present the negatives of shopping at non-local stores; however, we realize there often is no choice.

But at the very least, we as a community can insist that the business that does come to town builds or opens in buildings that suit the environment, and they support us in the manner in which they would like us to support them — that is, they provide real jobs with real pay for local people — not part-time, low-wage, no benefit jobs that will guarantee themselves a poor, dependent workforce.

Ginger Jervey

Flagstaff